Greetings,
Currently, I have seven open positions. They Include INTC, WMT, LU, CSCO, BBBY, ORCL, and HD. I did not buy or sell any positions this week. The Tech sector declined as a whole this week on the news made by CSCO and HP. Dell was the one exception that reported good earnings along with positive guidance. CSCO and INTC both dropped significantly this week.
The rising price of oil is having a magnified negative effect on the market as a whole. There doesn't seem to be any relief in site and expectations seem to be that oil will hit the $50 dollar per barrel mark soon. Oil closed over $46 dollars per barrel on Friday. Speculation of further terrorist attacks on oil pipelines and other oil sensitive targets has further added to the storm and panic of runaway oil prices. Traditionally, this kind of oil price pressure drives down stock prices and if continued can significantly handicap the world economy. About the only benefactors are the oil stocks and some secondary stocks like the food stocks to a lesser degree. Many stock analyst predict the price per barrel of oil should go down to $30 dollar range next year, but I wonder if they are hedging now. What will bring the price down? Obviously, supply and demand control the price and manipulation of the supply is what appears to be happening here. Let's hope our political machine can get some cooperation from OPEC. A lot is at stake to say the least, November is right around the corner. The timing of this squeeze is interesting. Normally, I would assume this kind of scenario could be avoided with the presidential election so close. It makes you wonder if the timing of the this squeeze was calculated and planned.
As for now, the oil squeeze is on and XOM and other oil stocks seem to be the logical place to move to. Unfortunately, it seems like the current stock climate doesn't seem to be changing any time soon. I'll be looking to cost average when I can. Hopefully, we'll get a run up so I can sell some of these positions at higher levels. For me it doesn't make sense to sell INTC at this point because it is probably at or near the bottom range. I expect a longer term hold. I do as always reserve the right to change my mind.
Know one knows what next week's market will bring for sure. Expectations aren't too positive with the expectation of further rising oil prices. I will be holding tight for the long term. I don't foresee holding out for INTC to return all the way back. At this point I'm looking for a positive cycle down the road and an exit during this upward push.
I know many of my fellow traders are hurting at this time, as I am and many of you are. It's not all roses as you know all too well. In time this will pass, and please know you are not alone. I've never known a perfect trader although we all aspire to be one. In time, hopefully, we can turn around these down positions. They will go back up, it's just a question of when.
Anthony
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