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[Weekend Summary]

Dear Member:

If this week told us anything, it is that the markets are waiting to see what the Fed is going to do about interest rates next week. I made the mistake of turning on the TV this morning and heard three talking head experts tell me what the Fed is going to do. One said definitely a quarter point rate hike; another said no hike, a pause; the third, believe it or not, assured me that there would be a rate reduction. I remember why I watch the stock shows with the volume turned off.

I see nothing but indecision in the markets for now. The Nasdaq was down a little (-9), the Dow Industrials were barely up (+20) and the SP-500 was essentially flat. Both the Dow and the SP-500 closed again at resistance.

So far, the downtrend is in place. If the Fed reduces the rate (very low probability) the markets will probably jump. If the rate is left alone the market movement will probably be dependent on the accompanying Fed commentary and there will be a slight bias up. If rates are raised again, the accompanying commentary will be very important, but the market bias will probably be down.

There you have it. I've taken 3 full paragraphs to tell you I don't know either. My current bias is still to the downside, but it is a very weak bias and absent some wild news event the Fed is in control of market direction. They haven't called to tell me what they are going to do.

As a result of all the above, I'm sorry to report I didn't buy any stock this week. JOBS was up 85 cents and NSL was essentially flat. I should reiterate that my primary reason for owning NSL is the healthy dividend paid monthly. It does remain above my buy price.

My guess is that the Fed will either pause in the interest rate game or at least offer a statement suggesting that they may have ended for now. I suspect either of those scenarios would be more likely to push the market slightly in the direction of the bull. Any negativity on inflation or suggestion of continuing rate raises could have the market diving. My guess is that more likely than not the market will find a positive twist.

Have a good one.

Bill

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