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Weekend Newsletter for November 25, 2006 Please forward to a friend! (Subscribe)
The Week At A Glance According To The Charts
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Santa Claus Rally?
Santa Claus Rally? -- by Bill Kraft 
Bill Kraft
Editor |
I hope that everyone had a pleasant Thanksgiving holiday. Now we look
forward to the time of the 'Santa Claus rally'. One has to wonder
whether there will be such a rally this year since the markets have been
in pretty high gear since July for the S&P 500 and the Dow and since
August for the NASDAQ.
Often, though not always, the markets show a pattern related to earnings
and earnings announcements. Many companies operate on a financial
calendar basis and close their quarters in March, June, September, and
December. The month following the close of the quarter is ordinarily
the month during which most earnings announcements are made. The time
during which those announcements occur is often one of great excitement
in the market. Traders anticipate earnings announcements and one can
often see the prices of individual equities elevate as the announcement
approaches and we also often see the whole markets move upward during
these times of anticipation. Once earnings have been announced,
however, there is usually little corporate news left so the excitement
is somewhat drained from the markets. Those down times are frequently
found in May, August, and February. During 2006, we did see declines in
February, May, and August. There was a only a slight decline at the
beginning of November this year, but the markets then took right off
once again.
Right now it's hard to say whether the rally will just keep right on
going or whether we will have some kind of retracement before year end.
Oftentimes selling for tax loss purposes will occur during the first
couple weeks of December and the last two weeks of December will enjoy
the so-called Santa Claus rally. I suspect that will be the case again
this year, but only time will tell. The economic news and corporate
earnings reports have been very positive for some time. Some economists
are predicting a bit of an economic pullback (are they ever right?), and
the newsletter writers have attained new bullish levels which often is a
precursor for a market reversal. Only time will tell. The bulk of my
positions remain bullish, but as I commented recently, my finger is on
the trigger so that I can react quickly to a reversal if it occurs.
Meanwhile we might as well enjoy the directional move while we can.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Mr. Kraft's past articles are posted on our website for your review.
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP. or the associated editor. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Stock investing is risky. Option trading is risky. Futures trading entails great risk where one can lose more than his account balance. We are not licensed or registered in the securities or futures industries. The information presented herein and on the related web sites is presented "as is" without warranty of any kind either express or implied. Although the information has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites. By accepting emails, including various paid subscriptions and free email reports and newsletters, you agree to the terms of the MarketFN.com's website Disclaimer, Privacy Policy and Terms of Use provisions as such may be amended from time to time.
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