[Weekend Summary]
Dear Member:
The close today (Friday) puts the indexes in one of the most interesting positions I have ever seen. Talk about uncertainty -- here it is. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite each closed at a level of significant support. The Dow and S&P each closed just below the low close in January, but not quite as low as the January intra-day close. The Naz opened right at the January intra-day, dipped, and wound up closing just above that January intra-day low level. Meanwhile, volatility moved back and forth through the day and finished near resistance as measured on the VIX, VXN, and VXO. Market direction is now so uncertain, all I can say is that I am really glad I have refrained from trading very actively. I see no directional edge at the moment though if I were to guess I would guess in the down direction, but without much conviction. I don't think we are very far from getting a clear message of where we go from here in the short and possibly medium term as well. I want to emphasize how important it can be at times not to trade and be ready when the move begins or there is a clear continuation. I think it is time to be ready.
I got rid of a small loser by selling Himax Technologies (HIMX) after it broke below the 10 and 20 day moving averages. I also got rid of Sypris Solutions (SYPR) which has just continued down. Now, the losses I needed to cut have been cut.
I am left with some ready cash and positions in Introgen (INGN) and City Telekom HK (CTEL), each of which I still like, but for different reasons. Both are consolidating which I perceive to be positive in these market conditions. Introgen (INGN) is still dependent upon final phase testing of a cancer treatment and will be a boom or bust but the bust side at worst can't be too costly. CTEL is much less dependent on U.S. markets and I think may now showing some positive signals.
Finally, Blackrock Sr. Hi Inc Fd (ARK) continues to yield regular cash and additional income streams in this market are appreciated.
I find it extremely hard to be patient when I want to trade, but I know that patience can be rewarded. Jumping in against the current can result in significant losses and those are the situations I particularly want to avoid. I know, with patience, that the time will come when I can find great candidates among the cheaper stocks so now I must contol my emotions and simply await that time. I learned long ago I can't force the markets. I can only take what they will give.
Have a great weekend.
Bill
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